…but someone has to…

Fan Submission by Andrew Neilson

The table:

The NZIHL is filled with teams that cannot afford to lose. With the playoffs around the corner and a new Birgel Cup winner on the horizon, a lot has to happen for some teams to get their shot at glory. 

The Botany Swarm currently lead the standings with 31 points, but have played 4 more games than the Phoenix Thunder, and 6 more than the SkyCity Stampede, West Auckland Admirals and Canterbury Red Devils. With just four losses, and one critically in overtime, the Swarm are having a bounceback season, and are looking to  secure their first Birgel Cup since 2011. Unfortunately for the “Hive” faithful, there still is a large portion of the season to finish out with three additional teams looking to make a playoff push. 

While the SkyCity Stampede (17 points) are looking solid with only 2 losses in 8 games, the Admirals (12 points) and Red Devils (6 points) both, in theory, could make the playoffs. These teams may be down, but are by no means out of the fight. 

Now, let me be clear… A lot has to happen for some of these situations to come to fruition but there’s still a light at the end of the tunnel for Admirals and Red Devils fans. 

To quote quite possibly the greatest ice hockey TV show of all time, Shoresey… “this team will never lose again”. 

Botany Swarm:

We are starting off short and sweet with the Botany Swarm. While the Swarm’s spot in the playoffs is already guaranteed, there are still some things that have to happen for them to host the finals. First and foremost, they have to defeat their cross-town rivals, the West Auckland Admirals. Should they secure 6 points against the Admirals on the 29th and 30th of July, the Swarm would end the season with 39 points, all but securing their spot at the top of the table… but not entirely. 

SkyCity Stampede:

Again, this should be a quick and easy one but, with greater implications… With only 2 losses on the season and 8 games remaining, the Stampede could also theoretically add 24 more points to their total to finish the year with 41 points. Even if the Swarm win their next two games against the Admirals they would finish with 39 points, 2 shy of the Stampede. 

So, in this scenario, for the Stampede to skip the semi-finals  and guarantee home ice advantage for the Finals….

On the flipside of that, the Swarm have to rely on the Stampede losing only one of their games but they can’t afford to get lazy against the West Auckland Admirals or they give the Stampede leverage… In other words…

Are you getting it now? Good… 

After splitting the games in Botany last weekend, the Stampede will be able to  overtake the Swarm for first place with should they win all of their remaining games against the Thunder (July 21st/22nd), West Auckland Admirals (Aug 4th/5th + Aug 12th/13th) and Canterbury Red Devils (Aug 18th/19th).

Now, with the two most dominant teams so far this season already discussed, it’s time to dive into the other two competing teams and the wild scenarios required for them to make (or even host) a playoff series. 

West Auckland Admirals:

With 2022 Goaltender of the Year, Csaba Kercso-Magos, finally returning between the pipes after some time in Europe, the Admiralswill be a very tough and motivated team to beat. 

The 2022 Birgel Cup runner-ups, led by 2022 Defenseman of the Year Justin Daigle, need more consistent wins than their 4 win, 4 loss record to make the playoffs. In their 8 remaining games, the Admirals play the Canterbury Red Devils (July 22nd/23rd) the Botany Swarm (July 29th/30th) and back to back weekends against the SkyCity Stampede (Aug 4th/5th + Aug 12th/13th). 

In a theoretical world where the Admirals “never lose again” (don’t worry.. the gif is gone…) they would sit pretty with 28 points while also holding the Swarm to 31 and taking a whopping 12 points away from the SkyCity meaning the Stampede could finish the season with anywhere between 17 and 29 points. This would mean the Admirals would more likely be playing the Stampede in Queenstown for the Semi-Final but remarkably, it could mean that they host the Semi-Finals in Auckland if the Stampede lose a game to either the Phoenix Thunder (2 games remaining) or the Canterbury Red Devils (2 games remaining). 

Canterbury Red Devils:

Speaking of the Red Devils, while their season hasn’t started off as quickly as they would like to have, they are no doubt hoping to bounce back this weekend when they host the West Auckland Admirals. While they do currently sit with only 6 points through 8 games, the Red Devils still have a path to the playoffs open to them.

Led by 2022 NZIHL MVP and scoring leader Chris Eaden, the “Devils” will look towards their foreign firepower in the electric duo of Nicholas Lang and newly acquired Marek Malinsky. 

Similarly to the Admirals, if the Red Devils… say it with me… “never lose again” they could theoretically get a total of 24 points which would likely mean that they make the playoffs. 

With wins against the Admirals this weekend and against the Stampede in the last weekend of the regular season (Aug 18th/19th) they would take 6 available points from the two teams ahead of them in the standings likely knocking one of the two teams out of the Semi-Finals. 

In Summary:

For the Swarm to host the grand finals, they cannot lose or else they open the door for the Stampede to steal home ice advantage and the all important guaranteed place in the finals.

The Stampede can’t lose or they all but gift hosting the finals to the Swarm and will have to win the Semi-finals to make the finals.

The Admirals can’t lose if they want a shot at hosting the Semi-Finals.

The Red Devils can’t lose at all if they hope to make the playoffs…

Maybe Shoresey was right…. From how I see it none of these teams can lose again but somebody has to and I am not complaining. 

As far as I can tell, we just got the playoffs 2 months early and have an electric end of the regular season coming.

Tune in to the NZIHL YouTube livestream for the beginning of this chaos as the SkyCity Stampede look to secure 3 points against the Phoenix Thunder tonight at 6:45pm and remember…

… but someone has to…

Featured image courtesy of Terry Casey